Navigating the Tumultuous Seas of Great Power Competition

April 19, 2024

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Today, the world is witnessing unmistakable signs of a major shift in global power dynamics. From the icy North to the sunny South, from the bustling East to the serene West, significant changes in geopolitical landscapes have unfolded over the past few decades. It appears there is a frantic rush to find one's place, to belong, or to be part of something larger than oneself. It comes as no surprise that established superpowers and influential regional players are scrambling to maintain their positions, but at what cost? 

 

Against the turbulent backdrop of global power dynamics, countries are grappling with the intricacies of striving for superpower status while navigating a complex network of alliances, rivalries, and interests. For Somalia, positioned strategically at the intersection of continents and cultures, these dynamics hold significant implications. Being a "young" and recovering economy, Somalia positions itself as a neutral ally, drawing attention from various corners of the world. Its strategic location makes it both a possible center for collaboration and a key point for geopolitical rivalry. As Somalia aims to reconstruct and assert its influence on the world stage, it must deftly navigate these conflicting interests while upholding its independence and fostering stability in the area. The country's role as a neutral participant presents chances for involvement and cooperation, but also demands alertness and strategic planning to steer clear of being entangled in conflicts or power competitions beyond its borders.

The Reality of Great Power Competition

Scholars have delved into the realm of global interactions by scrutinizing the disparities in power dynamics among prominent actors. Realist ideologies suggest that nations, as key players, are embroiled in perpetual quests for security within a chaotic global framework where conflict and warfare loom in the absence of a dominant force or equilibrium among nations. Neorealism underscores military might as the yardstick for gauging relative power, taking into account the configuration of the international system. On the other hand, liberalists and institutionalists challenge the deterministic perception of global anarchy by proposing that inter-governmental collaboration is attainable through a well-structured set of cooperative regulations and establishments.

The historical account of great power transitions over 500 years paints a rather bleak picture for those hopeful of a peaceful shift from US supremacy to a new dominant state or alliance. Graham Allison, an American political expert, delved into 16 significant instances where emerging powers challenged established great powers and discovered that only 4 cases, or 25%, ended without conflict. Allison's study underscores a pressing question: Can the transfer of power from the United States to its successor occur without resorting to violence? 

From 1992 to 2008, such concerns seemed irrelevant as the US reigned unchallenged as the sole superpower after the fall of its Cold War adversary, the Soviet Union. During this era, China was seen as a prime candidate for great power status, actively engaged in the global capitalist system and profited from world economic principles. A prevailing belief in the West was that China's economic expansion would naturally lead to calls for political reform, integrating Beijing into the liberal international framework championed by American leadership.

In the new era of great power competition, the United States perceives that it faces a surge of competition from nations like China and Russia, whom the US perceives to challenge the fundamental economic framework established after the Cold War. Despite pursuing different strategies, both nations aim to assert their influence and reshape the world order.

A decade ago, the world looked quite different for small nations, offering them a mix of chances and obstacles amidst intense competition among major powers. As competing forces vie for control, smaller states now have fresh opportunities to reap rewards. However, they also find themselves entangled in a complex web of challenges that strain their internal stability and resilience. To thrive in this evolving landscape, small countries must unite against internal rifts and demonstrate strategic vision. Those who can adeptly maneuver through these intricate dynamics are poised to emerge as the ultimate winners during this period of transition.

Risks to International Security

The consensus widely accepted among experts is that the risks stemming from intense competition among major nations extend far beyond their borders. These dangers encompass various areas, ranging from cyber and technological conflicts to economic, military, and political proxy confrontations.

According to Cormac Smith, the concept of global security is of paramount importance in the minds of decision-makers and officials worldwide, with a particular emphasis on the "great powers."  Due to their ability to impact global events, affect countless lives, and shape future trajectories, these influential nations possess the capability to mold international affairs in different directions. In his book The World After the Peace Conference, Arnold Toynbee defines a great power as "a political force exerting an effect coextensive with the widest range of society in which it operates."  In simpler terms, a great power is a country with sufficient reach to effectively assert its influence and interests on the world stage.

In moments of history, the world has come close to the edge of nuclear conflict because of powerful nations' actions. The possession of nuclear weapons has always symbolized military superiority, dating back from the 1950s until now. Internationally, Russia is at the forefront in terms of nuclear stockpiles, with the United States right behind, and China also possesses considerable nuclear strength. Additionally, emerging nuclear players like Iran and North Korea have started to disrupt the established power balance, making the nuclear situation even more intricate.

In the realm of international relations, nuclear weapons have long been seen as a tool to deter powerful nations from engaging in conflict. However, with the current trend moving away from cooperation among multiple nations, there is a growing concern about creating an unstable environment. During the intense period of the Ukraine crisis, organizations like the United Nations observed that major countries were escalating global tensions and pushing the world perilously close to a potential nuclear crisis.  This emphasizes the delicate balance of today's geopolitical landscape and underscores the pressing need for strong diplomatic initiatives to bring back stability and prevent conflicts from spiraling out of control, posing grave risks to global security.

Global Risks in a Fractured World

The complex relationship between climate change and intricate human systems, such as worldwide food markets and security structures, presents notable risks. Severe weather occurrences have the potential to disturb agricultural output, affecting the availability and costs of food on a global scale. Rising sea levels and prolonged dry spells could worsen social and political strains, resulting in disputes over resources and mass migrations of people.  

According to a recent report by the World Economic Forum, a troubling pattern emerges where economic warfare is on the rise, leading to more frequent clashes between powerful nations and increased government interference in markets projected for the next couple of years. Economic strategies are predicted to shift towards defensive motives, aiming to secure self-reliance and independence from rival nations.  However, these tactics are also expected to be used aggressively to hinder the growth of others. This escalation in using economic tools as weapons exposes vulnerabilities in security due to the interconnectedness of trade, finance, and technology among globally linked economies, potentially resulting in a spiral of suspicion and disconnection.

When it comes to geopolitical rivalry and risks, the connection is often made with military conflict, but it can also manifest in other ways that are just as disruptive. These may include issues related to resource access, territorial control, or ideological differences.

The Imperative for Robust Global Governance

Over time, conflicting viewpoints surrounding the impacts of globalization and geopolitical competitions have coexisted. However, these disagreements have recently heightened dramatically, diminishing the effectiveness of the global system. Various perspectives on global governance objectives have surfaced, giving rise to contradictory narratives that impact both local and international entities. These narratives sow domestic tensions and impede multi-party dialogues, potentially disrupting the operations of global organizations. This tension is palpable at the UN Security Council, where opposing stances on breaches of international law have hindered decision-making regarding conflicts in regions such as Iraq, Myanmar, Ukraine, and the Israel-Palestine conflict in the Middle East. Likewise, diverging positions impede advancements in global discussions on climate change. Prompt reforms are imperative to synchronize international institutions with the diverse global landscape and effectively tackle these obstacles.

In the grand scheme of things, Somalia acknowledges the crucial role that international organizations, such as the United Nations, play in advancing stability and security. Nevertheless, it is vital to hold these entities accountable. Despite their goal of deterring aggression from major powers, they tend to prioritize the interests of these nations over smaller ones like Somalia. Often, participants are pressured into merely supporting decisions or aligning with influential groups. We must actively push for openness and accountability within these establishments. We need to ensure that global governance caters to the needs of all countries, not just a select few powerful ones. It is our responsibility to stand resolute and demand that these organizations function for the greater good of the worldwide community.

Upholding Universal Values for Global Peace and Resilience

The significance of fundamental principles such as justice, equality, and respect cannot be emphasized enough. Challenges arise in upholding robust scientific methods for justice delivery, while global cooperation hinges on these common values. Technological progress presents opportunities for precise intelligence and evidence, but international relations function within a web of legal, governmental, and societal complexities. It is essential to grasp this intricate landscape to positively influence justice systems.

Similarly, mutual values form the groundwork for collaboration and peace among nations in international relations. These values act as guiding principles that support fairness, inclusiveness, and mutual understanding, nurturing trust and cooperation worldwide. Embracing these shared values ultimately fosters a more equitable and just global order where countries come together to tackle collective obstacles and pursue common goals.

Somalia is currently on a path of significant change towards peace, stability, and growth, representing a remarkable chance for national rejuvenation. Leading this endeavor is the Somalia Quint Group gathering in Abu Dhabi. During this meeting, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud engaged with delegates from important countries such as the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Turkey. The focus of this gathering was to enhance support for Somalia's stability and prosperity while also upholding regional stability, fighting terrorism, and protecting Somalia's independence and territorial integrity. This diplomatic move highlights Somalia's dedication to utilizing global collaboration to move forward. Moreover, Somalia's viewpoint on the United Nations' role in worldwide governance stresses the need for comprehensive and responsible international frameworks that match its development goals and encourage mutual respect among nations.

Strategies for Global Peace and Resilience

Somalia employs a multifaceted diplomatic strategy to tackle global challenges while actively engaging in regional initiatives. Globally, it advocates for multilateralism and partnerships, emphasizing mutual accountability and shared values to advance peace and resilience. Simultaneously, Somalia leverages its participation in regional organizations like the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and the East African Community (EAC) to address regional security, economic, and developmental issues.

Additionally, Somalia plays a vital role in countering terrorism, particularly against al-Shabaab, and combating oceanic piracy. Through proactive engagement, Somalia strengthens ties with neighboring countries, contributes to peacekeeping efforts, and promotes regional integration, fostering stability and cooperation in the broader East African region.

 

Conclusion

Somalia finds itself at a crucial point in time amidst changing power dynamics worldwide. It is essential to take a strategic approach, embracing collaboration with multiple nations and forming alliances to tackle global issues. Active involvement in local programs and full use of organizations like the IGAD and the EAC are necessary to address common security and economic issues. Somalia should stand firm against terrorism and piracy, thereby strengthening stability in East Africa. Upholding fundamental principles of fairness and equal treatment is important, especially in global peace initiatives. When navigating intricate geopolitical scenarios, it is vital to prioritize Somalia's needs while promoting both local and international cooperation.

 

 

1. Joseph Grieco, "Anarchy and the Limits of Cooperation: A Realist Critique of the Newest Liberal Institutionalism," International Organization 42, no. 3 (Summer, 1988): 485–507, https://www.jstor.org/stable/2706787.

2. Richard Hannania, "Graham Allison and the Thucydides Trap Myth," Strategic Studies Quarterly (Winter 2021): 13–24.

3. Cormac Smith, "To What Extent Is 'Great Power Competition' a Threat to Global," Katehon, May 19, 2022, https://katehon.com/en/article/what-extent-great-power-competition-threat-global-security.

4. Arnold Toynbee, The World After the Peace Conference: Being an Epilogue to the 'History of the Peace Conference of Paris' and a Prologue to the 'Survey of International Affairs, 1920-1923' (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1926).

5. United Nations, Alarmed by Risk of Nuclear Escalation Among Major Powers, Speakers in General Assembly Warn Growing Distrust, Divisions Are Driving Multilateral System Towards Dysfunction, September 23, 2023, https://press.un.org/en/2023/ga12538.doc.htm.

6. Huimin Li et al., "Understanding Systemic Risk Induced by Climate Change," Advances in Climate Change Research 12, no. 3 (June 1, 2021): 384–94, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2021.05.006.

7. World Economic Forum, The Global Risks Report 2023, January 2023, https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Global_Risks_Report_2023.pdf.

8. "Somalia's President Attends Quint Group Meeting in UAE," Somali Guardian, February 1, 2024, https://somaliguardian.com/news/somalia-news/somalias-president-attends-quint-group-meeting-in-uae/.

9. "Somalia Piracy, Once Unsolvable Threat, Almost Completely Stopped. Here's Why...," The East African, September 29, 2023, https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/news/east-africa/somalia-piracy-almost-completely-stopped-here-s-why-4384132#google_vignette.

 

 

Please note: The above contents only represent the views of the author, and do not necessarily represent the views or positions of Taihe Institute.

 

This article is from the March issue of TI Observer (TIO), which examines the way to maintain growth momentum to achieve major development goals is explored in this issue. If you are interested in knowing more about the February issue, please click here:

http://www.taiheinstitute.org/Content/2024/03-29/1317317024.html

 

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